Collusion, part 2: Russia meddles in Latvian elections

On Latvian Elections Day, the national social network Draugiem has been subject to a cyber-attack. On its front page, appeared a photograph of Vladimir Putin with the following message: “Dear fellows from Latvia, this concerns you. The Russian border doesn’t end anywhere: Russian world can and must unite everyone who cherishes Russian language and culture, wherever they would be, in Russia or beyond its limits. Use as often as possible the expression “Russian world””.
Interestingly enough, Latvian Prime Minister qualified this attack of “expectable”, implying that the Russian influence is already present in the collective perception and that such agressive methods only show it once again. So what do the recent elections in Latvia let us know about the extension of Russian regional influence?

Torn between Russia and Europe, Latvia remains in an ambiguous position. Due to its peculiar geographical location, it is the arena of the NATO-Russian antagonism in the Baltic Sea and the point of extreme tensions between two major powers. Latvia feels an obvious pressure from its giant neighbour, as the country is highly dependent on Russian fuel and hosts a considerable Russian speaking minority (25 % of the overall population). This pressure was materialized last April, when Russia threatened to impose economic sanctions if Latvia dared forbidding bilingual teaching (Latvian-Russian) in secondary schools. This reaction was interpreted as a sign of care towards the Russian speaking community, but also as an abusive intrusion.

The victory of the party Harmony, whose electoral base is mainnly formed by Russians, holds a highly symbolic meaning. For the members of the Russian community - historically present in Latvia but most of them having a "non-citizen" status giving them different rights - it is a sign of hope that their interests will be part of the Parliamentary agenda.

However, the turnout was at its lowest level since the independence of the country – 54 %, demonstrating the fragility of the latvian democratic participation. The fact that a pro-Russian party has now won the elections has even been referred to as a “EU crisis”, fearing that Latvia would eventually switch to the Russian side. Prior the results of the vote, Donald Tusk expressed his anxiety about the current situation.

Finally, one interesting fact brought by the medium ReplyUA is that there was no consensus on the predictions of the outcome on these elections: some polls didn’t show Harmony as the winning party because of the refusal of Russian speaking people to answer questions asked in Latvian. 
Despite the fact that it has a leading position in these elections, Russian media say that Harmony (possible also to translated as "Agreement") will most likely be an opposition party again. This is the result of the global refusal to form a coalition with Harmony, and the absence of enthusiasm to participate in common projects. The leader of Harmony has, however, emphasized that without his party, the coalition will be unstable.

Commentaires